©2023 International Society of Arboriculture 190 Tabassum et al: A Plant Selection Tool for Changing Urban Climates Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2023. 49(4):190–210 https://doi.org/10.48044/jauf.2023.014 light (Ordóñez and Duinker 2015; Brandt et al. 2016; Burley et al. 2019; Khan and Conway 2020; Esperon- Rodriguez et al. 2021). Urban landscapes are often disproportionately affected by climate change due to the urban heat island effect and exacerbated effects of drought and heatwaves due to impervious surfaces, small root space, soil compaction, and poor manage- ment (Sæbø et al. 2003; Gillner et al. 2017). As cli- mate change continues to intensify, urban landscapes may become increasingly unsuited for the current species palette. It is, therefore, imperative that cities begin to adapt their planting palettes to species that will be able to thrive in predicted future climates. Various studies have predicted that climate change may have a deleterious effect on the suitability of urban areas for the survival of plant species currently found there. For example, Yang (2009) found that the future climate in Philadelphia, PA, USA would be INTRODUCTION The world’s climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, with accelerated change predicted in the near future (IPCC 2022). The effects of climate change threaten natural ecosystems as well as urban centres, where 68% of the world’s population is expected to reside by 2050 (DESA 2018). A common adaptation strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change in many cities around the world is to increase the amount of urban tree canopy cover (e.g., doubling tree can- opy, planting 5 million trees)(City of Toronto 2008; City of Melbourne 2013; Bristol One City 2019; New South Wales Government 2022). This is because urban vegetation can help to increase thermal com- fort through the provision of shade and evapotranspi- ration (Dimoudi and Nikolopoulou 2003). However, the fact that urban vegetation is vulnerable to the effects of climate change has more recently come to Which Plant Where: A Plant Selection Tool for Changing Urban Climates By Samiya Tabassum, Linda J. Beaumont, Farzin Shabani, Leigh Staas, Gwilym Griffi ths, Alessandro Ossola, and Michelle R. Leishman Abstract. Background: Use of vegetation in urban areas for climate change adaptation is becoming increasingly important; however, urban vegetation is itself vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Better understanding of which species will survive and thrive in urban areas with projected climate change will increase confi dence in choosing climate-ready species for resilient urban greening outcomes. Plant selector tools based on the suitability of species for future climates, however, are lacking. Methods: The Which Plant Where plant selector webtool (www.whichplantwhere.com.au) was created by combining sophisticated species distribution models and trait and environmental tolerance data from a variety of sources to allow users to select appropriate species which are climatically suitable for Australian urban environments for 3 different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070). The tool allows users to calculate co-benefi ts afforded by planting palettes and offers sugges- tions for alternative species based on climate suitability to help diversify plantings and provide options where substitutions may have to be made. Results: The tool contains information for over 2,500 unique plant entries (encompassing species, subspecies, cultivars, varieties, and hybrids) from 9 different growth forms (trees, shrubs, palms, ferns, cycads, climbers, succulents, grass, and herbs). The tool contains many resources to design and maintain resilient urban green spaces, from the planning stage up to monitoring and maintenance. Conclusion: Which Plant Where was designed to allow practitioners and urban forest managers to confi dently identify climate-ready species now to ensure urban green spaces remain diverse and resilient into the future. Keywords. Climate Suitability; Ecosystem Services; Species Selection; Urban Greening; Urban Management. Scientifi c Journal of the International Society of Arboriculture
July 2023
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