Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 32(5): September 2006 Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2006. 32(5):229–235. 229 An Econometric Model to Predict Participation in Urban and Community Forestry Programs in South Carolina, U.S. J. Jess Fleming, Thomas J. Straka, and Stephen E. Miller Abstract. A regression-based econometric model was generated from a statewide survey of South Carolina, U.S., residents concerning participation in urban and community forestry programs. The econometric model attempts to estimate the probability of an individual’s participation. Results are intended to increase effectiveness of program planning and orga- nization within state forestry commissions. Model 1 was created as follows: participation F (gender, age, education, marital status, region, area raised, area reside, household, duties, and income). Because these responses represented qualitative values, a number of dummy variables (0 or 1, for example, for yes or no) were generated to more accurately reflect the values for participation and a logit model was used. Logit regression analysis produces a value between 0 and 1 that can be interpreted as a probability. Model 2, with fewer variables, was later created to reduce possible multicol- linearity problems. Model 1 had a pseudo-R2 participation. Model 2 had a pseudo-R2 value of 0.2955 or a 29.55% probability of having a correct prediction for value of 0.2407. The models produced reasonable predictions of participation. Key Words. Econometrics; public involvement; urban and community forestry. What factors influence participation in urban and community forestry (U&CF) programs? Which participant characteristics are most predictive of participation levels? How likely is a specific forest owner to participate in the program? Econo- metrics is a tool that helps answer these questions. Econo- metrics is “the application of statistical and mathematical methods to the analysis of economic data, with a purpose of giving empirical content to economic theories and verifying them or refuting them” (Maddala 2001). We used economet- ric methods in this study to assist in U&CF program planning and to aid in better identifying the factors that affect partici- pation in the program. At the turn of the century, over three-fourths of U.S. resi- dents lived in urban areas (Alig et al. 1999; U.S. Department of Commerce 2000) and the urban forest has had a significant impact on their quality of life (Alig et al. 2003). Congress realized this when it amended the Cooperative Forestry As- sistance Act of 1978 to authorize financial, technical, and related assistance to state foresters in support of cooperative efforts in U&CF (Cubbage et al. 1993). Between 1960 and 1997, the nation’s urban area increased from 10.2 to 26.7 million ha (25–66 million ac) (Vesterby and Krupa 2001). Over the 48 contiguous states, in 1992, less than 3% of land area was urban and less than 5% of the land area was considered developed (Heimlich and Anderson 2001). Urban land area in 1997 varied from 10% in the Northeast to 1% in the Mountain Region (Vesterby and Krupa 2001). Urbanization has been tied to population growth, and by 2050, another 16.2 million ha (40 million ac) is expected to be converted into urban and other development uses (Alig et al. 2003). South Carolina followed this national trend (London and Hill 2000). This increased urbanization increased the importance of U&CF programs. Knowledge of the characteristics of people who participate and who do not participate in these programs should allow planners to target an audience for participation. Assistance from U&CF programs involves U&CF plan- ning, recreational development, air and water quality im- provement programs, stormwater management, urban wild- life management, and economic, urban development, and conservation management plans. Within the United States, typical program recipients are local governments, policymak- ers and elected officials, builders and developers, civic and community groups, neighborhood associations, nonprofit groups, local businesses, and urban forest councils (Urban Forestry South Expo 2005). An important aspect of U&CF programs is public involve- ment (SC Forestry Commission 2005). Citizen participation has been shown to be essential to U&CF program success (Cole 1979; Henderson 1984). With tight budgets and other constraints, volunteerism and public participation are key de- terminants to program success (Bloniarz and Ryan 1996; ©2006 International Society of Arboriculture
September 2006
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