Complex Risk Factors and Cascading Consequences in the Maritime Supply Chain by andreW tuCCi Consultant and CAPT, USCG (ret) Tempest Marine, LLC dennis egan Research Professor Rutgers University Christie nelson, Ph.d. Assistant Research Professor Rutgers University The research presented in this paper was funded by the Center for Accel- erating Operational Efficiency under grant no. 17STQAC000001 from the U.S Department of Homeland Security. The views and conclusions con- tained in this document are those of the authors and should not be inter- preted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. D iverse and complex, the global maritime sup- ply chain is by far the largest single component of global trade. Most operational planning and fred roberts, Ph.d. Distinguished Professor and Director of CCICADA Center Rutgers University latha viJayagoPal Graduate Student Rutgers University ryan WhytlaW Consultant Rutgers University of the organizations that show up for local harbor safety and area maritime security committee meetings. In this article, MTS and the term “maritime supply chain” are not interchangeable. The latter includes the MTS and extends to other players, including overseas shipping, upland warehousing, long haul rail and truck lines, and endpoints such as retailers and manufactur- ers. These additional players are equally important to enabling the maritime supply chain to serve the broader economy. The most serious consequences of marine supply chain issues may fall on entities not represented in tra- ditional MTS discussions. Accordingly, our research is focused on understanding “cascading consequences” to all of these components of maritime trade. Background and Purpose Since 2020, a diverse collection of disruptions has unex- pectedly impacted maritime supply chains, as well as non-traditional stakeholders. The COVID-19 pandemic was, and remains, a significant driver in these disrup- tions. Still, other events, including the blockage of the Suez Canal, cyberattacks, changing trade patterns, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have impacted mari- time supply chains. When multiple disruptions coincide, or a new disruption occurs when another one is already underway, the risks and impacts can be significantly harder to understand and quantify. Consumers, manufacturers, MTS-related organiza- tions, and government officials have all been impacted by these events, often in unanticipated ways. These cascading consequences continue to flow through our academic research has focused on single disruptions such as oil spills, hurricanes, or security threats to this system, especially at the port level. While maritime trade has proven resilient, challenges over the past few years have revealed that, when multiple disruptions coincide, maritime supply chains can be unexpectedly strained leading to cascading consequences. A greater understanding of how these various dis- ruptions interact can improve risk analysis, resilience, and stakeholder engagement. Quantifying the economic impact can improve modeling and demonstrate the value of reliable maritime supply chains. This research can also help prepare for a future where climate change, digital transformation, emerging technology, workforce demographics, and new trading patterns all present dynamic maritime supply chain risks. The MTS and Maritime Supply Chains The Marine Transportation System (MTS) is composed of port and vessel operators, agencies, seafarers, stevedores, and service providers that see marine transportation as central to their purpose and responsibility. A somewhat U.S.-centric term, in plain language, the MTS is made up 88 Proceedings Summer 2023