work with our research, as we are confident it will benefit all parties. The goal of the research is to develop a model, useable by various stakeholders, to better understand multiple risks to maritime supply chains, including the likely eco- nomic consequences of such events. Ukraine A few short months after our initial research was approved, Russia invaded Ukraine. We quickly expanded the scope of our work to track the maritime disrup- tions of the invasion, and DHS has approved continued research on that topic. While the direct impacts to the U.S. MTS have been small, there have been substantial impacts to other maritime stakeholders, from stranded seafarers to the superyachts of oligarchs. Energy, food, and commodity trading have been impacted, and smuggling and sanc- tions-evading activity have accelerated. While much of the focus has been on food and energy trade, we are completing a study that describes the con- flict’s impact on grains and certain metals, including nickel, palladium, titanium, aluminum, copper, and ura- nium. Russia is an important source of these materials, and trade restrictions have led to skyrocketing commod- ity prices. This has various cascading impacts, including on European automotive production lines, and on the production of semiconductors and catalytic converters in the United States. We will provide a much more detailed accounting of this significant disruption in the future. For now, we note that the war has weakened governance, shifted trade patterns and partners, strained ports, upended markets, and threatened the lives and livelihoods of people well beyond the combat areas. Initial Observations While our work is in no way complete, we have learned a tremendous amount from the various professional How You Can Help If you have opinions, observations, or recom- mendations related to “complex disrup- tions” and how the industry can improve its resilience, please contact Dr. Fred Roberts, director of the Command, Control, and Interoperability Center for Advanced Data Analysis, at [email protected]. We’d love to talk with you! experts we have interviewed, as well as from ongoing reviews of industry publications, government data, and other sources. A few of those observations include: • Cybersecurity remains a concern, and even the perception that data integrity may be in doubt could impact supply chain activity. • Improperly labeled or packaged hazardous materials, including flammable items such as lithium ion batteries, is a growing concern. • With much of the maritime community’s focus on COVID-19 and technology issues in recent years, the ability of port communities to implement and sustain meaningful security requirements (e.g., maritime security) is uncertain. • Maritime supply chain challenges caused many businesses to shift from a “just in time” to a “just in case” approach to their inventory and supply chain management practices. As supply chains stabilize, it is unclear if organizations will continue this practice or return to their former, cost-minimizing approach. About the authors: Andrew Tucci is a retired U.S. Coast Guard captain with over 30 years of experience working with the marine industry in security, safety, and environmental risk management. Dennis Egan is a research professor at Rutgers University and assis- tant director of the Command, Control and Interoperability Center for Advanced Data Analysis (CCICADA). His research includes cyber secu- rity and complex disruptions to the marine transportation system. Mr. Egan represents CCICADA on the Port of New York and New Jersey Area Maritime Security Committee. Christie Nelson, Ph.D., is an assistant research professor for the Com- mand, Control and Interoperability Center for Advanced Data Analysis Center and the Professional Science Masters Program. She has done various maritime projects for the U.S. Coast Guard, security related projects, and more, and is the director of the Rutgers MBS Externship Exchange Program. Fred Roberts, Ph.D., is distinguished professor of mathematics at Rutgers University and director of the Command, Control and Interoperability Center for Advanced Data Analysis, a U.S. Department of Homeland Security university center of excellence. He has done extensive research on cyber and physical disruptions to the marine transportation system, much of it in collaboration with the U.S. Coast Guard. Latha Vijayagopal is a graduate student of the Rutgers MBS program and parttime research assistant at the Command, Control and Interop- erability Center for Advanced Data Analysis. She previously worked 17 years for a Fortune 500 company that builds enterprise management software, in their research and development and technology offices. Ryan Whytlaw, holds a Master of Public Policy and is an emergency planner with 20 years of experience in the fields of emergency manage- ment, security and transportation. He originally joined Rutgers in 2009 and currently supports the Command, Control and Interoperability Cen- ter for Advanced Data Analysis as a consultant. His experience as a researcher includes supporting emergency management and evacuation planning, entertainment venue and stadium security, and transporta- tion systems disaster resiliency. Summer 2023 Proceedings 95