168 Araújo et al: Time Series Analysis of Urban Forest Waste Figure 3. Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of Ln (MPA-JP). João Pessoa from January to December 2014. The ARIMA (0,1,4) model presented the lowest MQPE for 2014 and therefore was selected. The ARIMA (0,1,4) model was selected for all 12 periods, and its shape is characterized by: Yt = (1 + Ɵ1B + Ɵ2B2 + Ɵ3B3 (1 − B) Therefore, the model with its coefficients is char- acterized by: Yt = (1 − 0.4750 + 0.2984 + 0.2909 − 0.0265)αt (1 − B) Figure 4 shows the residual values of the ARIMA (0,1,4) model. Besides the Box-Pierce test, the cor- relogram suggests independence of residuals for Table 2. Preselected models for the forecast of urban pruning waste in João Pessoa. 1 2 3 4 ARIMA (p,d,q) (5,1,0) (1,1,2) (0,1,3) (0,1,4) AIC -90.317 -91.072 -91.92 -89.951 Q (m) 0.2247 0.1802 0.1462 0.1048 Test Box-Pierce χ2 α 40.979 44.687 46.05 46.938 + Ɵ4B4 )αt several lags, where the control limits of the AFC graph corroborate the adequacy of the selected model. It was decided to forecast values for 12 months, i.e., throughout 2014. Figure 5 shows the behavior of the forecast, considering 80% and 95% confidence inter- vals, beside the observed values for 2014 in months. The model presented satisfactory forecasts, with MQPE = 3.10. Regarding some reflections on the potentiality for urban pruning residues to be used as secondary raw materials, pruning waste can be used as a bulking agent for the composting of dewatered wastewater sludge (Ponsá et al. 2009), for the production of kraft paper (Gencer 2015), as a component in soilless growing media (Benito et al. 2005), and for the pro- duction of xylitol (Albuquerque et al. 2014). In Malaysia, pruning waste is currently left to rot or incinerated, but Lim et al. (2007) verified that utiliza- tion of pruning waste for energy purposes could lead to an increase in the contribution of biomass to the nation’s energy consumption to approximately 59%. In China, the use of green waste from tourist attrac- tions for renewable energy production presents high potential, with Shi, Du, et al. (2013) discussing this potential and policy implications. Still, in China, the potential challenges and development of pruning ©2020 International Society of Arboriculture
May 2020
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