Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 46(3): May 2020 Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2020. 46(3):163–173 URBAN FORESTRY ARBORICULTURE Scientific Journal of the International Society of Arboriculture & Time Series Analysis of Urban Forest Waste in João Pessoa (Northeast Brazil) By Yuri Rommel Vieira Araújo, Thiago Freire Melquíades, Monica Carvalho, and Luiz Moreira Coelho Jr. Abstract. Urban afforestation requires management to ensure its sustainability within the city, and urban pruning waste is generated regularly throughout the year. This paper analyzed the time series of the urban pruning waste volume for João Pessoa (Northeast Brazil) from January 2008 to December 2014, with the objective of determining the volume of urban pruning waste generated and adjusting it to a forecast model. The models studied were part of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Family. The main results indicated that the ARIMA family models presented satisfactory results for the forecast, and ARIMA (0,1,4) was the model that provided the best forecast for 2014. This study contributes with a better understanding of the pattern and amount of urban pruning waste generated in João Pessoa and could assist the future orientation of municipal public policies. Keywords. ARIMA; Biomass; Forecasting; Forest Economy. 163 INTRODUCTION Urban afforestation refers to a pattern of distribution of trees in urban territories, public roads, and remain- ing areas that do not contain buildings; the success of urban afforestation depends on adequate and judi- cious planning (Bobrowski and Biondi 2012). Cor- rection of unstructured and disorganized afforestation includes pruning and removal (or substitution) of trees. Pruning is the elimination of leaves, branches, buds, and foliage for compatibility with the existent physical space or to promote appropriate develop- ment of the plant. Pruning can be used for cleaning, correction, adequacy, lifting, and emergency pur- poses (RECIFE 2013; SVMA 2015). Maintenance of urban afforestation encompasses green areas (parks, squares, and gardens) and streets (public roads), and its maintenance includes irriga- tion, supplemental fertilization, preventive treatment, and pruning. Urban afforestation requires constant maintenance activities to ensure its sustainability within the city, and its management results in a signif- icant amount of urban pruning waste (UPW), which includes urban tree and woody yard residues (Araújo et al. 2018; Araújo et al. 2019). In 2014, Brazil pro- duced 78.6 t of municipal solid waste (MSW), which included residential and urban cleaning wastes (resi- dues from street sweeping, management of municipal gardens and parks, and urban pruning). The state of Paraiba (Northeast Brazil) generated 1.278 t of MSW in 2014, with an average of 3,504 t/day (ABRELPE 2014). According to the Brazilian National Environmen- tal Sanitation Information System (SNSA 2016), the percentage of UPW within MSW varied between 1.41% and 9.37% in 2014. The municipality of João Pessoa generated 415,960 t of MSW in 2013, which included domestic, construction, and street cleaning wastes. Urban pruning and replacement of trees was responsible for 28,710 t, corresponding to 6.9% of all MSW collected (Prefeitura de João Pessoa 2014). As UPW is generated regularly throughout the year due to scheduled maintenance operations on urban affor- estation, this frequency over time can be classified as a time series, which is defined as a set of observations of a variable arranged sequentially in time (Andrade 2013). ©2020 International Society of Arboriculture
May 2020
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