84 Sydnor et al.: Economic Impact Potential of Emerald Ash Borer (Agrilus planipennis) Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2011. 37(2): 84–89 Community Ash Densities and Economic Impact Potential of Emerald Ash Borer (Agrilus planipennis) in Four Midwestern States T. Davis Sydnor, Matthew Bumgardner, and Sakthi Subburayalu Abstract. A survey of 586 community representatives with urban tree canopy responsibilities was conducted to provide data on ash density within four states in the Midwestern U.S., and to examine potential economic losses should emerald ash borer (EAB) become established in their communities. One hundred twenty-three responses were received from communities of various sizes. Data represented 10.5% of the population of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, U.S., and 21% of all communities surveyed. Assuming the complete loss of ash due to EAB, losses in landscape value for ash trees within community boundaries were estimated to be between USD $7.7 (median-based) and $15 billion (mean-based). The cost to remove those trees is somewhat smaller and would be between $3 and $5.8 billion. Replacing trees lost to EAB with smaller 5 cm trees in street, park, and private plantings would cost be- tween $2.7 and $5.2 billion. The total loss of ash for communities in the four states surveyed, including landscape losses, tree removals, and replacements are estimated to be between $13.4 and $26 billion. The potential total costs per 1,000 residents in the four-state region is estimated to be between $395,943 and $769,687. The rates per 1,000 residents estimates can be utilized by communities to begin developing contingency plans should EAB impact them. Key Words. Agrilus planipennis; Ash Tree Density; Cost of Ash Tree Removal/Replacement; Economic Impact; Emerald Ash Borer; EAB; Fraxinus; Green Ash; Survey; White Ash. Emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) is an exotic pest of native ash trees in the United States and was first described in the Detroit, MI, U.S. area in 2002 (USDA-APHIS 2003). By 2004, this pest was found in Michigan, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Indiana (Herms et al. 2004). The pest spread rapidly and had been found in 10 additional states by 2009, including Kentucky, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wiscon- sin (Anonymous 2009). This insect is in the order Buprestidae, which are known as buprestids or metallic wood boring beetles. EAB is thought to have the potential to destroy essentially all native ashes, as North American ashes lack an evolution- ary history with EAB (Herms et al. 2005). Commonly planted native ashes (Fraxinus americana L. and F. pennsylvanica Marsh.) (D’Amato et al. 2002) evaluated to date have been shown to be sensitive (Sydnor and Subburayalu 2009). Both ur- ban and natural stands of ashes appear to be sensitive and have been killed in southeastern Michigan (USDA-APHIS 2003). If the precedent of EAB devastation in southeastern Michi- gan and northwestern Ohio (Landers 2005) is repeated in other states, many communities will need to develop contingency plans including the scope of the concern. The USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program has defined the ash component in forestlands for decades. More recently, FIA data have become available for some urban areas as well, but the numbers of communities are small relative to the number of communities in a state and communities evaluated to date have ©2011 International Society of Arboriculture a tendency of being larger communities. Sydnor et al. (2007a) conducted a survey of community representatives with urban forestry responsibilities for 67 communities in Ohio to begin to determine information regarding urban ash densities and EAB economic impacts within the state. Similarly, the present study was conducted using the same methods to quantify the potential economic impact in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin communities should EAB destroy all native street, park (active and passive but excluding forested areas), and pri- vate ash trees. In another study, FIA data based on tree canopy of ash per hectare were used to develop community ash den- sity estimates and associated costs of EAB damage (Kovacs et al. 2010). Different methods of determining urban ash densi- ties can provide managers with options when seeking to better understand the potential impacts of EAB on their communities. Once urban ash densities are determined, it is possible to de- velop estimates of costs associated with loss of ash to EAB. Cal- culated impacts include the loss in landscape value, the costs of tree removal including stumps where appropriate, and the cost of replacement trees. General national guidelines exist for deter- mining landscape values of trees (Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers 2000) when used in conjunction with state guidelines (Sydnor et al. 2007b). As used here, loss in landscape value in- cludes a variety of fiscal and environmental factors that are dif- ficult to quantify, such as increased heating and cooling costs, reduced property values, increased storm water runoff, and re- duced wildlife habitat, as well as reduced aesthetic quality. Site
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