208 critical day length is met. This in turn brings more variation to the date of leaf unfolding. Thus our model results indicate that Tilia leaf unfolding phenology is more strongly driven by day length and shows less inter-annual variation in leaf unfolding dates than other boreal broad-leaf species. The model RMSE value, indicating the difference between model and observations, was larger than is common for TT models (Schaber and Badeck 2003; Linkosalo et al. 2008), but the RMSE did not show any trends on latitude or longitude (results not shown). There was a slight trend on altitude, such that the higher elevation gardens show higher values of RMSE. This is most likely due to higher elevations having also steeper slopes, a feature which has a con- siderable impact on local temperature conditions. As the ERA-Interim weather data is smoothed in a grid instead of local observations adjacent to the pheno- logical gardens, the temperature data is unlikely to precisely match the geographical properties of the terrain adjacent to the higher elevation gardens. We conclude that the safe source area for import- ing plants to southern Finland within the reasonable planting season would be limited to the areas where the bud development in an average year would be only slightly ahead of the development state in south- ern Finland. This would include the northernmost parts of the Baltics, as well as the west coast of Scan- dinavia. Additionally, areas where bud development lags behind from local conditions would also be acceptable plant sources for spring plantings, such as the rest of Scandinavia, excluding the more southerly Skåne and Denmark. In transporting trees from more distant locations, there is the risk that spring develop- ment of the trees has started while the conditions in southern Finland are still wintry. It seems likely that a risk of phenological mis- match is also applicable to autumn plantings. Although spring planting is often preferred, autumn planting is also common and considered fairly well suited for Tilia (Solfjeld and Hansen 2004). Trans- planting trees too early in the autumn is known to give inferior results (Solfjeld and Hansen 2004), but late fall transplanting increases the risk of drying and cold injury (Richardson-Calfee and Harris 2005). This indicates that phenology is potentially equally important in autumn transplantation. However, mod- eling autumn phenology is not as accurate as that of spring events, so experimental work may be needed ©2019 International Society of Arboriculture Linkosalo et al: Modeling Tilia Transplant Phenology to figure out the limits of transporting plants for autumn transplanting. LITERATURE CITED Bühler, O., P. Kristoffersen, and S.U. Larsen. 2007. Growth of street trees in Copenhagen with emphasis on the effect of dif- ferent establishment concepts. Arboriculture & Urban For- estry 33(5):330–337. Chmielewski, F.M., S. Heider, S. Moryson, and E. Bruns. 2013. International Phenological Observation Networks: Concept of IPG and GPM. In Phenology: An Integrative Environmen- tal Science (pp. 137–153). Springer Netherlands. Chmielewski, F.M., and K.P. Götz. 2016. Performance of models for the beginning of sweet cherry blossom under current and changed climate conditions. Agricultural and Forest Meteo- rology. 218–219:85–91. Dee, D.P., S.M. Uppala, A.J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M.A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A.C.M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A.J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S.B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E.V. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A.P. McNally, B.M. Monge-Sanz, J.J. Morcrette, B.K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Ros- nay, C. Tavolato, J.N. Thépaut, and F. Vitart. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 137:553–597. Eaton, G.K., and B.L. Appleton. 2009. Getting Started in the Nursery Business: Nursery Production Options. Virginia cooperative extension publication. 430-050. Hänninen, H. 1990. Modeling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions. Acta For. Fenn. 213:1–47. Huttunen, L., and J. Soveri. 1993. Luonnontilaisen roudan alueel- linen ja ajallinen vaihtelu Suomessa. (In Finnish). Vesi- ja ympäristöhallinnon julkaisuja - Sarja A 139. Lindqvist, H. 2001. Effect of different lifting dates and different lengths of cold storage on plant vitality of silver birch and common oak. Scientia Horticulturae 88(2):147–161. Linkosalo, T., T.R. Carter, R. Häkkinen, and P. Hari. 2000. Pre- dicting spring phenology and frost damage risk of Betula sp. under climatic warming: a comparison of two models. Tree Physiology 20:1175–1182. Linkosalo, T., and M.J. Lechowicz. 2006. Twilight far-red treat- ment advances leaf bud-burst of silver birch (Betula pendula). Tree Physiology 26:1249–1256. Linkosalo, T., H.K. Lappalainen, and P. Hari. 2008. A comparison of phenological models of leaf bud burst and flowering of boreal trees using independent observations. Tree Physiology 28:1873–1882 McKay, H.M. 1997. A review of the effect of stresses between lifting and planting on nursery stock quality and performance. New Forests 13(1–3):369–399. Pauleit, S., N. Jones, G. Garcia-Martin, J.L. Garcia-Valdecantos, L.M. Rivière, and T.B. Randrup. 2002. Tree establishment practice in towns and cities–Results from a European survey. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening 1(2):83–96.
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