©2023 International Society of Arboriculture Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 49(6): November 2023 313 Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 2023. 49(6):313–328 https://doi.org/10.48044/jauf.2023.022 Scientifi c Journal of the International Society of Arboriculture Achieving the Urban Tree Trifecta: Scenario Modelling for Salubrious, Resilient, and Diverse Urban Forests in Densifying Cities By Sara Barron, Emily Rugel, Zhaohua Cheng, Lorien Nesbitt, Stephen Sheppard, Agatha Czekajlo, and Cynthia Girling and Recreation 2018), and the “First Step” urban for- est management plan in Los Angeles (City of Los Angeles 2018). Indeed, natural landscapes are now being touted for their potential to provide nature- based solutions (NBS) to the complex set of chal- lenges arising from climate change, whether social, economic, or ecological (European Commission 2015). Urban forests are increasingly recognized as being salubrious (health-giving) for urban residents. Look- ing specifi cally at the urban forest as a form of nature, the range of benefi ts for both physical and mental health is robust. With respect to physical health out- comes, the presence of 10 street trees per block in INTRODUCTION The critical role natural ecosystems play within urban environments has been increasingly acknowledged in both research and policy over the past 4 decades. Human dependence on forests and biodiversity is highlighted in the United Nations’ Sustainable Devel- opment Goal 15 (United Nations 2022), recognized as a pillar of health-promoting environments by the World Health Organization (World Health Organiza- tion 2017), and embedded into municipal sustainabil- ity plans such as the “One New York” plan in New York City (City of New York 2015), Vancouver’s “Urban Forest Strategy” (Vancouver Board of Parks Abstract. Background: Urban forests can provide nature-based solutions (NBS) to complex climate-change challenges via the provision of ecosystem services such as shade and cooling that offset increased risks of chronic diseases and excess mortality. They also confer indirect health benefi ts by providing regulating ecosystem services that can facilitate climate-change mitigation efforts: increased shade can encourage shifts to lower-carbon transportation methods such as walking and cycling, for example. However, in order to ensure that urban forests are both resilient to threats and confer the maximum possible benefi ts, we must be able to project decades into the future in order to understand the impli- cations of current urban forestry decisions. Methods: This study outlines a framework for creating urban-forest scenario models and reports the results of a case study conducted to highlight the ways in which decisions made at each stage of the scenario-development process impact its outcomes and application. Our case study focused on a neighbourhood in Vancouver, Canada, that is simultaneously undergoing urban densi- fi cation and aiming to signifi cantly increase canopy cover by 2050. Three distinct aims were identifi ed for the case study: maximizing public- health benefi ts, selecting climate-resilient tree species, and integrating planting across public and private lands to advance diversity. To achieve these aims, baseline information on the neighbourhood’s existing tree network was collected, entered into GIS software, and delineated based on a set of pre-identifi ed characteristics. Next, a list of climate-adapted species was developed. This climate-adapted species list was then vir- tually “planted” across the neighbourhood, using a combination of machine-based and manual planting techniques. Finally, the resulting sce- nario model was quantitatively assessed to understand its composition and impacts. Results: Our study demonstrates that a salubrious, resilient, and diverse urban forest can be created via a strategic program that complements extant trees in the public domain with planting programs along blue-green streets and on private property. Conclusions: Achieving the urban tree trifecta will require collaboration among municipal depart- ments and the development of a range of public and private initiatives, but it has the potential to maximize nature-based solutions in cities facing rapid shifts due to densifi cation and climate change. Keywords. Biodiversity; Modelling; Nature-Based Solutions; Scenario Planning; Urban Forest.
November 2023
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