©2023 International Society of Arboriculture 324 trees that prioritize both short-term community edu- cation and long-term maintenance. In addition, although much of the required effort will take place at the municipal or regional scale, factoring in variation that exists at the neighbourhood, block, or lot level is crit- ical, as is laying out a clear path for reaching the time- and density-based goals common to urban sustainability plans. Different neighbourhoods will have varying extant urban forests, as well as distinct strengths and capabilities in terms of growing their local urban for- ests. If cities plan urban forests at the neighbourhood scale with the future climate in mind, then species diversity can be tailored appropriately and ecosystem services assessed more accurately. These characteris- tics must be accounted for to avoid exacerbating existing inequities in canopy coverage that result in a lack of environmental justice from the many ecosys- tem services the urban forest provides. LITERATURE CITED Alvey AA. 2006. Promoting and preserving biodiversity in the urban forest. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening. 5(4):195- 201. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2006.09.003 BC Assessment. 2022. BC Assessment. https://www.bcassessment .ca Bivand R, Keitt T, Rowlingson B, Pebesma E, Sumner M, Hijmans R, Rouault E. 2022. Rgdal: Bindings for the “Geospatial’ Data Abstraction Library (Version 1.6-4). https://CRAN .R-project.org/package=rgdal Breen P. 2022. Landscape plants database. Corvallis (OR, USA): Oregon State University. [Accessed 2022 March 16]. https:// landscapeplants.oregonstate.edu Carmichael CE, McDonough MH. 2018. The trouble with trees? Social and political dynamics of street tree-planting efforts in Detroit, Michigan, USA. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening. 31:221-229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2018.03.009 Carter JG, Cavan G, Connelly A, Guy S, Handley J, Kazmierczak A. 2015. Climate change and the city: Building capacity for urban adaptation. Progress in Planning. 95:1-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2013.08.001 City of Los Angeles. 2018. First step: Developing an urban forest management plan for the City of Los Angeles. Los Angeles (CA, USA): Dudek. 106 p. https://www.cityplants.org/ wp-content/uploads/2018/12/10939_LA-City-Plants_FirstStep _Report_FINAL_rev12-7-18.pdf City of New York. 2015. One NYC: The plan for a strong and just city. New York (NY, USA): City of New York. 354 p. https:// www.nyc.gov/html/onenyc/downloads/pdf/publications/ OneNYC.pdf City of Vancouver. [date unknown]. Blue green systems. https:// vancouver.ca/home-property-development/blue-green-systems .aspx City of Vancouver. 2013. LiDAR 2013 [dataset]. [Updated 2019 May 16; Accessed 2023 April 15]. https://opendata.vancouver .ca/explore/dataset/lidar-2013/information assessments. Other assumptions included the esti- mated height and crown spread of planted trees follow- ing 30 years of growth, for which we integrated mature size data from a reliable database but necessitated a generalized formula to calculate 30-year sizing across all species due to limited and inconsistent existing data and literature. With the increase in open, online tree inventories, future work could incorporate tree allometry and growth measurements, per species and urban environment, for improved model robustness. For example, incorporating climate impacts such as drought, increases in potential insect and disease infestations, and extreme weather conditions into tree species selection was done through the use of a regional climate-adapted tree species list. Relying on such dated information, even if recently produced, is another limitation. Increasingly, climate impact information is being updated at a rapid pace, and future models could incorporate more recent impact assessments. Robust models also require consideration of coopera- tion among departments at the municipal and regional levels (i.e., the development of blue-green streets can only be carried out successfully when urban foresters work hand in hand with transportation planners and civil engineers). Although included, this consider- ation was somewhat limited, focusing primarily on the potential for planted trees to provide sufficient shade along blue-green streets. Other factors to exam- ine would be the potential risks to pedestrians and cyclists associated with falling leaves and branches; conflicts with below and aboveground infrastructure; and the impact of land-use types, such as single-family vs. multi-family housing, on the appropriate selection and maintenance of trees. The current effort was aimed at sparking a conversation with local governments about the potential benefits and limitations of a range of future urban forests with the notion that future iter- ations would incorporate local governance measures more concretely. CONCLUSIONS As the case study described here demonstrates, it is possible to achieve the tree trifecta of a salubrious, resilient, and diverse urban forest even alongside rapid densification and within the constraints imposed by historical planting choices. Reaching this goal will require the creation of strong collaborative relation- ships between urban-forest managers and a range of other municipal officials, as well as the development of novel public-private partnerships to plant new Barron et al: Scenario Modelling for Resilient and Diverse Urban Forests in Densifying Cities
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